Proof That We Are Rebuilding

My goal with this article is to provide my own case. To prove that the Toronto Maple Leafs are rebuilding. Many Toronto fans are of the belief that the Maple Leafs are preparing to make the playoffs for the first time in many years, but I do not share their belief. I hope I present a compelling argument for the other side, as well as lower the expectations for many fans and help set their eyes on the true prize: another high draft pick for the bare cupboard.

TABLES

First, we have to get a look at the big picture. So I have chosen to create a set of goal-scoring tables to help epitomize our team next season.

Let’s assume only 200 man-games lost to injury and spread them evenly over our 18 starting forwards + defensemen. 200 is quite low. For comparison, there’s a 2008-2009 man-games-lost chart at the bottom of this Andrew’s Dallas Stars Page entry from April, 09: http://www.andrewsstarspage.com/index.php/site/comments/another_way_to_look_at_the_injury_count/

A quick calculation: 200 man games lost / 18 = 11.111111111111111111111. So let’s just say 11 per player in the starting roster. So now I will fill in the table with each player competing in 71 games. I will figure out their likely goal total by taking their best season goal total in their career. For player’s that don’t have enough sample base (Hanson, Stuart) I will use a John Mitchell rookie season as my basis—12 goals would be overshooting it for those two, but I don’t mind. Jiri Tlusty will be added as matching his NHL best total, despite only playing as a reserve. Tyler Bozak will be given credit as potting goals at the pace of a rookie Nikolai Kulemin.

Notes: Now let’s be realistic. Mayers is not going to score 15, I will subtract 5. Stempniak will not score 27 goals, so I will subtract 7. Blake will not score 40, I will bring him back down to 28 goals (his second best season total). Grabs and Kulemin are likely to score more: I’ll add five goals to both of them. Stuart will not score 12, I will level him out at 10.

New Table:

That seems like a fair set of expectations on each player. Blake, Stempniak, Hagman, Hanson may under perform though. However, this is just an example and I’m going to assume that each player will play better than expected, because I believe in a fair argument.

Now, only one thing remains: It’s an unfortunate part of the game, but we have to cut the goal totals 1/8th due to injury (since 71 games is approximately 7/8ths of a season). But I will only cut by 1/9th to allow a wide berth for player’s who achieved their best season goal total in fewer than 82 games played.

That amounts to 203 goals for our forwards.

Now I will quickly table the defense, going through the above three steps:

That amounts to 46 goals for the defense.

These are very generous charts, as you see. Every player is either matching their career high or surpassing their rookie season (except a few, for obvious, and previously mentioned, reasons). And it comes out to 249 goals for. Which is fewer than the Leafs last season. And that number is not good.

HOW TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.

Last season, only two teams below the 240’s in Goals For made the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. At that level, squeezing in would be highly dependant on goaltending and defense. The two teams that made it in, while scoring fewer than 240 GF, were the New York Rangers and the Carolina Hurricanes. They allowed 218 GA and 226 GA, compared to the Maple Leafs 293.

Both the Rangers and Hurricanes were dependant on their goaltending: Cam Ward and Henrik Lundqvist each proved themselves MVP with a .916 save percentage. Any Leaf fan worth a grain of salt knows not to expect .916 sv% from Toskala (who’s never done so in the post-lockout NHL) and Gustavsson (who has not played an NHL game).

BOLSTERED DEFENSE.

So we are planning for a season in which we can score 249 goals. And we know that the only two Eastern teams to make the playoffs with fewer Goals For than that allowed only 218 and 226 goals against and we allowed 293.

Exelby is a hard hitting defenseman known to be competent in his own zone. Beauchemin is known to be a solid two-way defenseman. Komisarek is known to be a shutdown defenseman (assuming he recovers from Lucic syndrome).

So how much will our Goals Against drop?

We can’t answer that. We can assume that Goals Against will drop. And we’ll be right in that respect. They can’t possibly stay at a league worst 293. But we really need to know–by how much will they improve?

We can only look to history to find parallels that may help give us an idea:

Before their phenomenal 196GA season this year, the 2007-08 Boston Bruins allowed 222 GA. That’s a differential of 26.

Conversely, Ottawa was at the top of the East in 2005-06 and allowed 211 GA. Last season, they were 11th in the East and allowed 237 GA. That’s another differential of 26.

The year after the Carolina Hurricane’s won the playoffs, they failed to qualify for the post season. Comparing those two seasons, there was a differential of 11 GA.

Even drastic improvement or decline only poses a modest differential.

The only exception is the Philadelphia Flyers turn about between 06-08. But that was due to Martin Biron posting a .918 save percentage, having six twenty goal scorers, and the emergence of the Richards/Carter tandem.

All in all, it would be asinine to assume Toronto could drop their Goals Allowed by more than 45. And 45 is a very important number in this example because that would bring them to 249GF-248GA. That is because, in the last two seasons, no team in the East has made the playoffs with a negative GF-to-GA ratio and more than 222 Goals allowed.

Thus, Toronto would require a minimum, asinine 45 GA differential to potentially qualify for the playoffs, if they were to score 249 goals.

IF.

But there is one more problem hanging in the way–

THE TABLES ARE TOO GENEROUS.

Have a good look at them again and you will see that.

46 goals from a defense core is greater than Detroit (anchored by Niklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski and Niklas Kronwall). Pittsburgh only had 34 goals from their defense. Chicago had 35. Even the Pronger-Niedermayer tandem in Anaheim only had 38.

The final forward table includes six players having 18 goals or higher. Toronto only had four do this last season. And to have six would put us in a league with Detroit, Pittsburgh and Chicago…who only had six goal-scorers reach 18. A team like the Anaheim Ducks only had four. The New Jersey Devils had five.

Both tables together assume that a whopping 17 of our players will have 8 or more goals. I don’t have to go into too much depth to tell you that this is preposterous. Detroit only had eleven to reach that plateau. The Bruins only had eleven. The Sharks had eleven also.

To make the tables truly realistic, we would have to chop 10 or 20 more goals.

MORE FACTS.

Goals For/Goals Against (2006-2009)

258-269
231-260
250-293

Differential: 28 GF / 24 GA

OUT:
Dominic Moore

Pavel Kubina

Nik Antropov

Depth Subtractions (players who couldn’t continue their pace):
Boyd Devereaux and Jeremy Williams accounted for 11 goals.

Goal Production Out: 69.

Now that you know how it works, I’ll forego the graphics.

IN:
Michael Komisarek, 3 goal pace.
Garnet Exelby, 0 goal pace.
Colin Stuart, 12 goal pace.
Colton Orr, 1 goal pace.
And
Francois Beauchemin: his 08-09 is too small of a sample to convert, so I chose his best season), 11 goal pace.

Goal Production In: 27.

The Maple Leafs have a deficit of 42 goals for. This puts them at an estimated 208 next season. Of course, some player’s will be given more ice-time and fill in for the departed. But there will still be a significant deficit. No one is about to step in for Antropov, specifically.

THE CONCLUSION.

Whether you like it or not, we’re looking at a team that will not qualify for the post-season and will be in the bottom ten in league standings. A team that will score approximately 235 goals (still being a little optimistic) and allow approximately 267 (293 – 26), since 26 seemed to be a common differential in the bolstered defense section.

235GA-267GF.

In 2007-08 the Maple Leafs finished 7th last and their GF-GA was 231-260.

That is the ratio of a bottom ten team, and there’s no way to avoid that.

Although it may appear we have made the improvements to sneak into the playoffs, we have not. The Toronto Maple Leafs are as bad as they were last season, give or take a position or two. What has been done this off-season is a change of identity. Not an influx of talent. We are the same team with new faces and more responsibility, but that doesn’t make up for our inequities.

Inequities being: The Maple Leafs are not a goal scoring team. And we are not a team with great goaltending (until Gustavsson or Pogge or Reimer prove otherwise). And even with an optimistic 26 GA slashed off of our record, we will not be a playoff team. Not even close to one.

Even a defenseman being swapped for a forward is unlikely to push us over the hump. There are no teams dangling 30 goal scorers for a Finger or Exelby (despite a few silly rumours). If one of these guys is flipped for a young forward, it will be a young man who has yet to make an impact in the NHL and will begin to one or two seasons from now. I’m afraid, barring a miracle from God, the Maple Leaf roster will remain what it is now.

But I can understand where the optimism about this upcoming season originates. With all the new faces that have come in, it’s easy to get caught up in the major changes. There is a positive buzz around Toronto, and for very good reason. Change has come. Finally.

But a good buzz can’t get a team into the playoffs.

And neither can the Toronto roster.

So I’ll see you all again next season, and we’ll all cheer together for the best draft pick we can get. And enjoy it! Because this will be our last season near the bottom.

Please comment with your thoughts, hatred, arguments or family recipes. And I’ll be back with another article soon.

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